Mechanistic modelling of African swine fever: A systematic review

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) poses a grave threat to the global industry. Understanding transmission dynamics, such as through mechanistic modeling, is critical for designing effective control strategies. Articles were examined across multiple epidemiological and model characteristics. Model filiation was determined creation neighbor-joined tree using phylogenetic software. Of 34 four articles qualifying inclusion, main modelling objectives identified: estimating parameters (11 studies), assessing determinants (7), examining consequences hypothetical outbreaks (5), alternative strategies (11). Estimated varied widely did parameter assumptions between models. Uncertainties on ecological usually accounted assess impact modeled infection trajectory. Almost all models are host specific, being developed either domestic pigs or wild boar despite fact that spillover events evidenced play an important role in ASF outbreaks. development incorporating routes crucial. All compared defined priori, future should be built identify optimal contributions many methods. Further, competition, opposed how they would synergistically implemented. While comparing beneficial identifying rank-order efficacy methods, this structure does not necessarily determine most combination available In order ASFV effectively support decision-making controlling globally, these limitations need addressed.